Somalia's soldiers and police are deserting at an unprecedented rate. The UN has been unable to put together a multinational military force to stabilize the country. The AU is pulling out, and any sort of U.S./EU "land invasion" to combat piracy appears highly unlikely (indeed now more than ever). So what's to become of this east African state?
Unfortunately, I find myself agreeing with Ethan Zuckerman who writes:
My money’s on al-Shabab controlling Mogadishu within weeks, and moving to stabilize the country under Sharia law. This is likely to be less pleasant than the control the UIC imposed, but will likely have the effect of reducing piracy and, perhaps, allowing commerce to resume. In the medium term, it’s likely to threaten Ethiopia and perhaps Kenya in a serious way, and to provide safe haven for Islamic extremists. And in the long term, it’s likely to become a major security issue for the Obama administration, possibly rising to the level where it’s discussed by folks other than Africa policy wonks.Al-Shabab is an extreme, intolerant, Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist insurgency group that has been active in Somalia since 2006. In 2008 it was classified as an official terrorist group by the U.S. State Department. In short, it's exactly the kind of 'governance' Somalia and its neighbors don't need. So.... who else wants to save Somalia?