South Africans are heading to the polls today for the fourth time since 1994, when the first democratic elections were held. The outcome is hardly any secret, with the populist Jacob Zuma expected to walk away victorious.
Yet despite the foretold outcome, larger questions loom: how will the opposition fare? How big of a majority will the ANC win? Will it retain the two-thirds majority it would need to change the constitution (Zuma has stated that he would like to review the status of the Constitutional Court, as he does not think South Africa should have people "who are almost like God in a democracy")? Recall that South Africa's government is based on strict proportional representation in which, among other things, the percentage of the vote is congruent to debate time in parliament. A most important factor given the plethora of pressing issues at hand.
Indeed, while the ANC merits praise for upholding constitutional law, stabilizing the economy and expanding the social grant program, its overall record of governance remains mixed at best. Crime is on the rise, as is corruption. The education system is poor. Unemployment is high, and rising. Business confidence is at a ten-year low. Racial inequality persists. The list goes on. Adding more cause for concern, last week a mob overran a fruit and cane sugar farm, allegedly in frustration over the slow pace of the long-promised land reform, raising fears that the country may quickly be going the way of Zimbabwe. Not surprisingly, 42% of South Africans feel that their country is heading in the wrong direction.
Will Zuma make things right? That much remains unclear and seems to hinge on the size of the ANC vote. As the ever-wise Economist aptly observes:
If it falls below 60%, it will be regarded as a severe blow to Mr Zuma, loathed by some as much as he is adored by others. He might then be persuaded to adopt a cautious approach to government. If, on the other hand, the ANC keeps its two-thirds majority, there are real fears that the already visible vices associated with one-party states—arrogance, corruption, nepotism, intimidation—could be reinforced, leading Africa’s biggest economy down the slippery path of other post-liberation failed African states.
For local election coverage, see South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission hompage and The Times. For South African commentary on the election, see the BBC's "Blog my beloved country" feature.