Shanta and Cristina Savescu have some interesting calculations on the size of the terms of trade shocks (expressed as a percentage of 2006 GDP) for African countries in 2008 and 2009. They find that the decline in commodity prices (oils, minerals, metals) is affecting African countries asymmetrically, with oil importers benefiting from the decline and exporters suffering:
Terms of trade shocks (% of 2006 GDP) | |||
2008/2007 | 2009/2008 | ||
Top five | |||
Equatorial Guinea | 32.5 | Seychelles | 5.4 |
Angola | 21.9 | Eritrea | 3.8 |
Congo, Rep. | 19.3 | Togo | 3.6 |
Gabon | 17.9 | Comoros | 2.2 |
Mauritania | 16.3 | Senegal | 2.2 |
Bottom five | |||
Togo | -6.1 | Nigeria | -10.2 |
Senegal | -6.2 | Gabon | -12.5 |
Cape Verde | -6.8 | Congo, Rep. | -13.6 |
Eritrea | -9.8 | Angola | -15.1 |
Seychelles | -10.5 | Equatorial Guinea | -20.9 |
"Top five" refers to those countries with favorable terms of trade shocks, "bottom five" to those with the most negative. Their complete findings can be found here.