I received an email from a friend yesterday directing me to this publication in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief, and enquiring as to whether the end of 'China in Africa' (the phenomenon, not the blog!) might be on the horizon. I've opted to respond publicly, as this is not the first time that the question has crossed my desk.
The short answer is: no.
In the Jamestown piece, Jeffrey Herbst and Greg Mills argue that the commodity price decline has adversely affected African export prices and growth, and subsequently African relations with China. They cite the withdrawal of Chinese entrepreneurs from Zambia and the Congo, and an overall Chinese strategic retreat from the continent, in turn suggesting that the market - and not grand strategy - is the main Chinese motivation in Africa.
While this may be true to an extent, I fear that Herbst and Mills are overstating their claim. While some Chinese entrepreneurs have migrated out of Africa, Beijing continues to aggressively pursue its African relations, regarding the reality of a now waning West as the ideal opportunity to strengthen its influence across the continent. In the last month alone China has:
- Signed a $280 million deal with Mauritania to extend the port at Nouakchott
- Agreed to build a hospital in Nairobi
- Offered $77 million to Uganda in a renewed bid to boost the East African country's development
- Installed government internet in Senegal
- Signed an aid and cooperation agreement to further ties with Rwanda
- Signed a 2.6 billion agreement to develop Liberia's iron ore mine, the biggest ever investment in the West African nation
- Signed another agreement (the Chinese do love their agreements!) with Nigerian Communications Satellite Limited to replace the nation's first communications satellite, which failed in orbit in November 2008
- Secured a $1 billion loan to Angola
- And built a national radio and television broadcast building in Congo
The focus of concern, according to western diplomats in Kinshasa, is that the deal would give the Chinese consortium unprecedented state financial guarantees, including some that earmark government revenues and make China a privileged creditor[...]
Trade between China and Africa is at an all time high. Hu Jintao is touring the continent this week, stressing the importance of Sino-African ties and shoring up African good sentiment. Deals continue to be signed. And this is meant to be the end? No, I'm afraid this is only the beginning.