In mid-December I posted on the then quickly collapsing state of affairs in Somalia, hypothesizing that al-Shabab would quickly move in to assert its control (quick refresher: al-Shabab is an extreme al-Qaeda aligned terrorist group that has been active in Somalia since 2006). Sure enough, the Shabab captured Mogadishu on Monday and have since declared the ascendancy of Islamic Law, threatening punishment on anyone who acts in opposition to it. The country now hangs in a period of uncertainty (sadly nothing new for this Horn of Africa country) until its new president is sworn in. A number of individuals have announced their candidacy for the post, including the Islamist Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.
Some analysts remain optimistic about Somalia's future (bless them), reasoning that if al-Shabab is anything like other rebel groups, it will likely fracture from within before it manages to do any serious damage to the country. Drawing on the experiences of other African Islamic states, however, I remain huuugely skeptical. Al-Shabab may be a rebel group, but they are really, really good at what they do. Lucky for them, not so much for the rest of us.
Promises of governance (in whatever form...) have also done little to bring to a halt Somali pirates, who today seized a German tanker off the coast of Somalia. Japan is now trying its hand at tackling the pirates (I wonder if we might see a Japan vs. China pirate showdown... kidding, kidding), adding to what are already largely international efforts aimed at averting this growing threat.
Curiously, under his presidency, George W. Bush pressed for a larger international force in Somalia, but was met with little support. It would seem that *gasp!* he may have been right. Indeed, of all the African challenges Obama now faces, I'd place Somalia's turmoils at top of the list. We need to keep our eyes on this one.