Looking back, moving forward

With the year drawing to a close, it's often customary for individuals, organizations, bloggers, etc. to compile lists -- lists which, in their view, somehow encapsulate the passing year. Admittedly I have no such list to offer, though would like to draw your attention to a few rather worthwhile compilations. While not quite of the 'year in review' variety, I believe they actually say more than any such list would.

• Arguably most interesting is Elizabeth Dickinson's post in Foreign Policy which examines what the leaked US diplomatic cables reveal about the world's rogue states. Dickinson conveniently breaks down the information into 'what we know' and 'what we learn,' with a few 'curve balls' thrown in for good measure. A most fascinating read.
• Russell Leigh Moses of the WSJ points us to the top China political trends to watch in 2011, which say much about what transpired in 2010
• In a similar vein, Reuters has compiled what they believe will be the leading global political risk trends for 2011 (all links are pdf), broken down regionally: Global risks/trends; Western Europe; Emerging Europe; Africa; Middle East; Latin America; United States

It is also incumbent upon me to call your attention to a new expert blog, written by the Council on Foreign Relation's senior fellow for Africa policy studies, Ambassador John Campbell. In 'Africa in Transition,' Campbell examines political and security developments in sub-Saharan Africa in a most astute fashion. Though much of the posting tends to focus on Nigeria in particular, there is much fascinating insight to be garnered.

And with that I wish you all the best for the coming New Year. May 2011 be kind to us all!

Changed priorities ahead

For the past few months I have been toying with the idea of returning to blogging, having (rather reluctantly) given up the enterprise some time ago. The thing with bloggers these day, I find, is that they do it constantly or not at all: it's either job-like or it's not. Falling the category of 'almost-but-not-quite-willing-to-dedicate-my-life-to-blogging' of bloggers, I relinquished the task, only to be confronted by an old Oxford tutor of mine the other day, who immediately prompted to enquire about my absence from the blog-o-sphere. Perhaps his words were merely intended as polite chit-chat, or perhaps he was indeed genuine in his desire to see my thoughts plastered all over the internet -- either way, here I am back; inspired and ready and willing to reengage in discussion with those of you out there.

My time away has been quite curious, divided as it was between fieldwork in Addis Ababa, holidays on the American east coast, and -- of course -- Oxford. My research has shifted slightly, away from the more economical and towards the more political. My time in the field has led me to the (perhaps anticlimactic) conclusion that China's economic competition in Africa can largely be understood in simple market economic terms (i.e. competition), and save for curious loopholes and investment advantages enjoyed by Chinese firms, the story more or less stops there. Where it begins is with the political and cultural/societal implications of China's engagement with Africa: not only for the African countries themselves, but for the region and international community more generally.

The NYTime's David Sanger had a perhaps slightly obvious though nevertheless worthwhile piece on "the three faces of China" which very much speaks to this issue. Sanger argues:

In one sense, there’s nothing surprising about a rising power finding subtle ways to handle complex problems. But before China’s breakout from poverty to arguably the world’s No. 2 economy, its default position on foreign policy was to restate the principle of non-interference in other nations’ affairs and focus largely on its neighborhood.

That was before it had the military resources and the incentive to start thinking of how to secure and defend interests around the globe. Today, its interests include access to oil in places like Sudan and Iran, safe shipping around the Horn of Africa, the ability to manipulate its currency for its own gain.

And for the first time, the world is seeing a distinct range of behaviors, from aggressive to passive-aggressive to diplomatic, in places that 20 years ago China’s leaders rarely thought about.

What American diplomats and analysts now have to figure out is what drives China’s actions and responses, how to try to shape them and, some would argue, what limits to try to set

Not only American diplomats, but indeed international leaders generally. Though the 'China threat' theory was perhaps a bit too overplayed, China's global political rise remains largely underplayed, presented as an event that may or may not occur at some point in the distant future. A balance must be found, preferably sooner rather than later.

One world; one China; no Google

The much anticipated announcement of Google's plans for its Chinese market has finally come down the pipeline. The company has pulled out of the Chinese market, with Mainland customers being redirected to Google.hk.com - Google's Hong Kong server - as of early this morning. From Google's official corporate blog:

Users visiting Google.cn are now being redirected to Google.com.hk, where we are offering uncensored search in simplified Chinese, specifically designed for users in mainland China and delivered via our servers in Hong Kong. Users in Hong Kong will continue to receive their existing uncensored, traditional Chinese service, also from Google.com.hk. Due to the increased load on our Hong Kong servers and the complicated nature of these changes, users may see some slowdown in service or find some products temporarily inaccessible as we switch everything over.

Chinese officials have issued angry remarks over the decision (the full text of which may be found here), accusing Google of violating corporate promises made when the company initially entered the Chinese market.

What Google's move actually means for the Chinese government, citizen access to information and foreign firms with operations in the country, however, stands to be determined. A few immediate scenarios come to mind. With respect to the former two matters, China could block the Hong Kong site altogether or indeed on a case-by-case basis, perhaps further using the incident to regulate Hong Kong's freedoms - a dangerous path upon which to embark, to be sure. If pursued, such a move could potentially result in an increasing percentage of China's citizenry learning how to use circumvention techniques to get around such censorship - or, perhaps, not. It is, as Rebecca MacKinnon observes, a question of how aware the Chinese are of their government-imposed and managed tunnel vision, and how determined they are to shake themselves from its shackles.

Beyond this, it wouldn't be surprising to find the government imposing increasingly stringent regulations on foreign companies breaking into the market in the future. Again, however, such an approach could potentially hamper FDI inflows into the country if orchestrated on a large enough scale, subsequently obstructing the CCP's objectives of increased investment and growth. Equally, then, growing in realization of the unaccommodating nature of its policies on FDI inflows into the country, we might observe a gradual liberalizing of CCP policies. 'Might' being the operative word in this context.

Indeed, Google's move this morning has seemingly opened a Pandora's box of question and possible policy options. It will be most interesting to track this story as it unfolds. It is most interesting, too, to a observe a corporation affecting a country's domestic - and potentially international - politics in such a profound way. For a great collection of papers on corporations and global governance, do please take a look at the St. Antony's International Review April 2009 issue, which focuses precisely on this very issue.

Noteworthy...

• CNOOC wants a stake in Ghana's oil field. So does Exxon Mobil. A showdown in the making...
• Anti-Chinese sentiment appears to be escalating in the DRC. The Chinese firm Sinohydro suffered an attack earlier this month by unidentified gunmen. This is unfortunately one among a growing number of such instances in the DRC
• "Conservative Egyptian lawmakers have called for a ban on imports of a Chinese-made kit meant to help women fake their virginity and one scholar has even called for the 'exile' of anyone who imports of uses it." And here you thought China was engaged in resource extraction alone...
• Yet another reason why I'm skeptical that China will ever do anything about North Korea. *Sigh*
• Last week the Mo Ibrahim Foundation released its annual index of governance in Africa. You can find the rankings here, and several of Elizabeth Dickinson's reflections here
• China is in a push for Guinea's resources - minerals and [the hope of] oil. Guinea is one of the poorest states in West Africa, with a seriously dubious human rights and governance record.
• The Gates Foundation is exploring securitizing aid. Securitization seems to be a dirty word these days, but Gates may be onto something...

Don't get on their bad side...

Yesterday's FT had a fascinating piece about China's lesser-known (though absolutely no less important!) Central Organisation Department:

To glean a sense of the dimensions of the organisation department’s job, conjure up a parallel body in Washington. The imaginary department would oversee the appointments of US state governors and their deputies; the mayors of big cities; heads of federal regulatory agencies; the chief executives of General Electric,ExxonMobil, Walmart and 50-odd of the remaining largest companies; justices on the Supreme Court; the editors of The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post, the bosses of the television networks and cable stations, the presidents of Yale and Harvard and other big universities and the heads of think-tanks such as the Brookings Institution and the Heritage Foundation.

Such continued adherence to a distinctly authoritarian political system is among the many reasons I don't see China evolving into a 'Western-style' democracy anytime in the near future. It furthermore presents a significant hurdle to the formation of genuine strategic partnerships between China and the West, which consists primarily of democracies.

It's the oil, stupid

Following on yesterday's post about China's pursuit of Nigerian oil, the CS Monitor today has an interesting piece on why China is unlikely to support sanctions on Iran - even if today's US-Iran talks go badly (which many suspect they will). The bottom line: oil, of course! China imports nearly 15% of its crude oil from Iran, and has recently started selling refined gasoline to Iran. What's more:

Chinese state-owned oil companies have signed three multi-billion dollar deals with Iran this year to develop oil and gas fields there, in a bid to establish a strategic hold over resources not under the control of Western oil firms.

"Iran has bountiful energy resources, its natural gas reserves are the second largest in the world, and all are basically under its own control," former Chinese ambassador to Tehran Sun Bigan wrote in the latest issue of "Asia and Africa Review," published by a prominent government think tank.

China also became a partner this year in a proposed pipeline carrying gas from Iran to Pakistan. Since India dropped out of the project, the pipe is now due to carry gas north from Pakistan into China, indicating Beijing's strategic vision of its future energy supplies.

As I've noted on countless previous occasions, China is in many respects the classic textbook case of realist politics, with primacy placed on its national interests and security over all other matters and considerations. It comes as little surprise, then, that Beijing remains unwilling to crack down on Tehran: Tehran has what Beijing wants and needs, and the Chinese will be damned if anything gets in the way of that. If you're waiting for Chinese sanctions on any oil-exporting country, you may be waiting a while...

Noteworthy...

Hello (!), and thanks very much for being so patient while I transitioned back to an Oxonian existence. I'm nearly all settled and on something resembling a routine, which is quite exciting. Research productivity is still a matter to be tackled, but I'm getting there... slowly, slowly.

News while I was away? - Lots, really! Below is a little collection of stories which caught my attention when I finally sat down to catch-up on the world's goings-on. These are but several among many, to be sure:

• Owen Barder on when innovative finance is good for development - and when it isn't
• Despite China's rapid economic rebound in recent months, many Chinese companies are still operating at a lower level of activity than they had achieved in the boom years
• American chicken feet may be the US's saving grace in its recent (and ongoing) trade war with China
• Nestle is in a bit of a bind as it has been discovered that the company purchases milk from a Zimbabwean farm seized from its white owners and now owned by Mugabe's wife. Now that's a "whoops" moment if I ever saw one...
• The 24 September edition of the Economist had a wonderful special report on the positive potential of mobile money in Africa
• Writing in the European Voice, Jonathan Holslag and Gustaaf Geeraerts argue that Europe should expect to see a more assertive China in the coming years
• A rather biting review of Paul Collier's book, Wars, Guns & Votes written by Dr. Mutuma Ruteere, Research Fellow at the University of Cape Town. The review is written from an anti-imperialist, anti-interventionist tone; certainly worth your time

Noteworthy...

• Observing the evolution of the theory of evolution
• Via Marginal Revolution, a video on wine and cereal pairings. I can't quite decide whether to be intrigued or absolutely mortified, or whether to simply laugh it off given that all food and wine pairings are allegedly a scam, anyway
• Sub-Saharan African states are falling behind other regions in terms of competitiveness. While there have been some improvements in the past year (with Uganda registering as most improved), sub-Saharan states as a whole have slipped down the global rankings since they were first listed in 2000
• Freakanomics has a great piece on African entrepreneurship, which highlights the creative ingenuity present across the continent
• Bilateral relations between China and Cuba are at their best time in history, according to Chinese top legislator Wu Bangguo. Oh, and the U.N. has declared Castro a "World Hero of Solidarity." Makes you stop and think, doesn' it?
• Think your DSL is faster than a pigeon? Think again
• On this September 11, 2009 please take a moment to remember all those who sacrificed their lives eight years ago today. We will never forget

Understanding China's international behavior

The RAND Corporation has released a most worthwhile report on China's international behavior. Sponsored by the U.S. Air Force, the report:

analyzes the content, character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.

While I haven't yet made my way through the document in its entirety, I can comfortably say that it does an excellent job of highlighting and explaining the breadth and rapidity of China's international exploits, without the sense of panic that now plagues the majority of such reports emanating from the U.S.. The report examines China's foreign policy strategy from the point of view of Beijing's objectives, and stresses especially the ways in which China is working within the current international system while at the same time altering it to its advantage. The full report may be found here.

Noteworthy...

Posting here will likely be light(-ish) through the end of this month, as I'm currently in the process of moving back to Oxford after a year-long hiatus. As you might imagine, things are rather hectic, and I imagine that they will remain as such until I'm properly settled in the city of dreaming spires come the end of September/early October. Please do bear with me!

For now, some very noteworthy reads (now bulleted for your reading pleasure owing to their number. Slightly more optically pleasing, no?):

• Protests have again broken out in Urumqi, the capital of China's Xinjiang province, two months after the initial turmoil. Thousands of Han Chinese have taken to the street touting the "uselessness" of the government and its failure to provide appropriate security protections in the region
• John Prendergast, co-chair of the ENOUGH Project, discusses the flaws in the Obama administration's Sudan policy and what should be done to remedy them. Mark Goldberg was right: Darfur activists appear to be losing their patience
• Gmail was down for a while this week, and it seems that the world nearly stood still. Why do we freak out over such seemingly insignificant technical glitches?
• It's no secret that the Chinese cook their books. What's perhaps less well known is that the cooking is done not by central CCP bureaucrats, but by local and provincial government officials. Such a reality speaks to the complexities of center-periphery relations in the country
• Is Kenya falling apart? It certainly appears that way, especially with the Kenyan state growing increasingly less visible and less relevant
• One-third of Chinese scientists want to switch careers and wouldn't recommend their profession to their children. Too little pay, too much work
• While I'm certainly no expert on Honduran politics, I nevertheless find it rather curious that the U.S. is threatening not to recognize the results of the Honduran elections to be held this November. This decision is based on the "current existing conditions" in the country, which have deteriorated since the June 28 coup. If this is indeed the sole guiding motive, surely the U.S. should not have recognized the Iranian election results either?
• Via Texas in Africa I learn of a brilliant series being run by Myles Estey over at The Esteyonage. The series, 'Gettin by,' looks at the micro-economy of Liberia and the means by which people outside the national statistics make a living. While the focus in solely on Liberia, the findings are indubitably applicable to other African states as well
• Amartya Sen's new book, The Idea of Justice, is 490-some pages of wise Sen-isms. Two themes predominate: economic rationality and social injustice. Occasional swings at John Rawls are also taken, which (depending on your guiding philosophy) make the book both witty and exceptionally informative. The Economist's review of the book may be found here

The U.S. and China: best friends forever? Don't hold your breath

Or so say Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini in the WSJ:

American and Chinese officials said all the right things during this summer's inaugural round of their Strategic and Economic Dialogue. President Barack Obama pledged to "forge a path to the future that we seek for our children." Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo wondered aloud whether America and China can "build better relations despite very different social systems, cultures and histories." He answered his own question, in English, with a "Yes we can."

They can, but they probably won't. Yes, Mr. Obama will visit China in November. But when it comes to international burden-sharing, Washington is focused on geopolitical headaches while China confines its heavy-lifting to geoeconomic challenges. The two sides have good reason to cooperate, but there's a growing gap between what Washington expects from Beijing and what the Chinese can deliver.

I couldn't have said it better myself. Indeed, despite the flowery rhetoric and displays of diplomacy, it is most unlikely that the United States and China will come to establish a strategic partnership anytime in the near future. This has less to do with Washington's efforts, and everything to do with Beijing's lack of desire.

In their WSJ piece, Bremmer and Roubini highlight several obvious and less obvious obstacles to partnership. Most important among them in my view (economic tensions aside) is the third, which stresses the divergence in geopolitical goals between China and the U.S. China currently has very little interest in assuming a broad global role: it has no desire to shoulder the responsibilities that come with involvement in Iraq or Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, etc. Beijing isn't interested in filling the shoes of the world's policeman, if for no other reason than its continued adherence to the 'non-interference policy' - its recent evolution notwithstanding. What's more, Beijing depends on many troublesome countries (Iran, for instance) for its energy imports, and thus isn't likely to take a stand against them in a way that would be pleasing to the United States (or the rest of the international community, for that matter) anytime soon.

The underlying motive for much - if not all - of China's overseas exploits is its own self-interest: its growth and security. Where these objectives line up with global and U.S. demands, great. Where they don't... well, tough beans. As Bremmer and Roubini aptly note, one of course shouldn't be too quick to dismiss the value of U.S.-China dialogues and the surrounding political symbolism. When it comes to concretes, however, both parties are pulling in opposite directions - and likely will be for some time to come.

PS: I doubt that Chinese propaganda blaming the swine flu virus on America does much to further anything resembling a strategic partnership. At least the propaganda cartoon is cute....

Doing business in China

Beginning this month and continuing through November, The Atlantic will be running a series of clips from the DVD series "Doing Business in China" - a three year project headed in part by James Fallows. The clips will offer footage from factory floors, peasant villages, CCP headquarters, and the offices of foreign firms which have learned to be financially successful in the Middle Kingdom. The idea is to present the "real China," beyond the hype and the noise. It appears to be a most interesting project, and certainly worthy of your attention.

The following is the project's introductory video:

You thought having only one child was bad? Try having only one dog

I must being today's post by noting that I have spent much of this morning getting caught up on my Bugle podcasts, which rather hinders me in my ability to take any political/IR goings-on quite seriously. For those unaware, The Bugle is an absolutely marvelous weekly satirical news podcast hosted by John Oliver (from The Daily Show) and Andy Zaltzman. Some of the humor is quite English, what with references to rugby and cricket and the like, but it is nevertheless absolutely amazing and certainly worthy of your attention.

All that being said, I appear to be finding the humor in just about everything this morning, and thus cannot help but draw this to your attention:

For decades, most Chinese residents of the southern city of Guangzhou have resigned themselves to the country's strict one-child policy. Now, a similar restriction on dogs has got them howling mad.

[...] On July 1, city authorities implemented the "one-dog policy" seen as a crackdown on the estimated 100,000 unregistered dogs in Guangzhou ahead of the Asian Games in the city next year...

The hits just keep on coming, don't they? Not only are Chinese families restricted in the number of children they can have - with severe repercussions for families who 'illegally' have more than one - but now their pet-keeping habits are also squarely under the auspices of the CCP! Evidently the reach of the government continues to run deep in China - from bedroom to kennel.

According to Chinese authorities, this so-called "one dog policy" is aimed at curtailing the spread of rabies across China. The CCP must really be running short on inspiration, however, as this is the very same excuse that was used in 2006 when the policy was implemented in Beijing. Well, three years and the slaughter of hundreds of dogs hasn't done the trick, so let's have another go at it. What logic! At least do try to mix it up a bit, guys. Surely there must be a 'Creative Propaganda Bureau' lodged in the government apparatus somewhere...

Oh, China, you never cease to amuse me.

Noteworthy...

US State Department's Africa Bureau receives less than rave reviews in a recent report from State's Office of the Inspector General

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the release of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue - the best selling jazz album of all time. Fred Kaplan examines the genius behind music (and see here for a great Legacy Recordings video tribute to the album - and Davis)

A recent International Crisis Group report briefing warns of increasing insecurity and political tension in Somalia's Puntland - a semi-autonomous region in north-eastern Somalia once touted as a success of the 'building blocks' approach to reestablishing national stability, and viewed as one of the most prosperous parts of the country

Is China revamping its climate change policy? The FT seems to think so...

Over-exaggerated Asian scrambles and praise-worthy Angolan management on a Monday morning

Chatham House released a new report today which provides a comparative study of the impact of Asian oil companies on Nigeria and Angola - the two leading oil-producing companies in sub-Saharan Africa. While the report considers Indian, South Korean and Japanese national oil companies, the primary focus is on Chinese oil strategy. Specifically, the report considers why Chinese oil strategy has been - and remains - so successful; how it is that Angola emerged as the second largest supplier of oil to China in 2008; how Chinese companies negotiate deals; and how such deals benefit Angola and Nigeria, respectively.

Among the more interesting findings emanating from the report is that which suggests that Angola does not fit the stereotype of a weak African state being exploited by the resource-hungry Chinese. Indeed, the Angolan government has been quite successful in managing its relationships with China and its oil companies, as well as handling its own version of the oil-for infrastructure scheme. The case of Angola is contrasted with Nigeria, where the Obasanjo government largely failed to manage the scheme:

While Nigeria was playing politics with its Asian partners, Angola was driven by economic necessity to quickly access funds to finance its reconstruction [...]

[...] The scale of corruption, mismanagement and non-execution of projects in the Obasanjo years has sent shockwaves through Nigeria. [...] His intentions were good but officials failed to spell out the full implications of the scheme. And many used the scheme for private profit.

The report further suggests that Western fears about an Asian takeover in the Nigerian and Angolan oil sectors are highly exaggerated:

Except for Japan, [Asian oil companies] only acquired equity participation in both countries in the last five years. More important, the [western] oil majors remain the leading players in both countries. They dominate production and hold the majority of reserves.

While Western oil companies do, indeed, still own much of Africa's oil reserves, the Chinese scramble for African soil should not be downplayed. As the report itself notes, Angola is now the second largest supplier of oil to China, with Nigeria, the Congo, Kenya, and other oil-producing states not too far behind. In 2005, China imported nearly 701,000 bpd of oil from Africa - approximately 30% of its total oil imports. This figure has been rising in recent years, and is estimated to reach some 40-50% in the next decade.

The full report - Thirst for African Oil: National Oil Companies in Nigeria and Angola - may be found here.

Noteworthy...

I had it in my mind to write something substantial here today, as there is indeed very much to talk about. Unfortunately I'm a bit under the weather and fear that any attempts at coherent argument or analysis will fall flat - and fast! Ergo, today's noteworthy reads...

Fred Kaplan asks: What's Bill Clinton doing in Pyongyang?

Perhaps the answer has something (or everything) to do with news that Burma is secretly building nukes

A great project in northern Uganda - Women's Income Generating Support - headed by Chris Blattman and Jeannie Annan provides women with grants and business training

Might China agree to an oil embargo on Iran?

What to do about climate change induced migration in Ghana (and arguably elsewhere)

Noteworthy….

China cracks down on civil society, making a case of the Open Constitution Initiative (OCI)

A coffee shortage in Venezuela? (Evidently I can't seem to leave the coffee theme from last week. Apologies.)

Who stereotyped whom? A different perspective on the 'Gates-Gate' controversy

On crime, security and corruption in Africa; new findings from Enterprise Surveys

Diplomacy 101 from Joe Biden. Quite frankly, it just makes me want to cry (and not tears of joy, mind you!)

When China rules the world...

Macleans - Canada's national weekly current affairs magazine - has a truly fascinating interview with academic and journalist Martin Jacques on the consequences of the coming global shift in power. The dialogue is particularly interesting because it discusses not only the ways in which China's political ideology will inform its (potential) hegemonic role, but it also does well to emphasize the particular tenets of Chinese culture which permeate its society and governance.

An excerpt:

If we want to try and understand what China’s going to be like, then the best place to start looking is East Asia, because that is China’s own region. China’s culture has had a major influence on the whole region in varying degrees for thousands of years—most obviously in the case of Japan, Korea and Vietnam. It’s a very sophisticated culture from its language to its literature to its food. These are elements of what we’ve termed soft power, and Chinese soft power is going to be hugely influential in East Asia in the future.

In East Asia, and in Africa, and in Latin America....

Noteworthy….

Bansky, the British street artist, has left his mark on the African continent. This Flickr page has a wonderful collection of his images which highlight Western perceptions of Africa

China is now an empire in denial, according to the FT's Gideon Rachman

Kindles, iPods and the end of cultural snobbery? Oh dear, this can't possibly be good.

Starbucks has opened an office in Kigali, Rwanda, and is set to partner with local coffee farmers. I wonder if this means that I can get my sugar-free vanilla soy latté fix next time I'm in Rwanda?

According to this projection, China will be the second most populous country in the world by 2050 (it is currently first), followed by the U.S. and Nigeria. India will be the foremost populous, while the Congo will be ninth-most.

China's minority problems in (visual) perspective

New violence erupted in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang Province, today as Chinese police shot dead two Uighur men. Despite an attempted return to normalcy, tensions in Xinjiang - and in China more generally - remain high. Jonathan Fenby has an excellent opinion piece in today's FT in which he explains how these recent events in Xinjiang highlight the nature of (and problems with) China's governing structure. Certainly worth a read.

The NYTimes also had a great graphic over the weekend showing the parts of China with significant minority populations. Minority here refers to one of the 55 recognized groups other than Han Chinese. The linked graphic enables you to view regions in China that have from 10 to 70% minority populations. The image below highlights the counties where at least half of the population is something other than Han:

While the graphic is somewhat misleading in that the Western provinces are very lightly populated compared to the highly populous eastern Han region, it nevertheless provides a very good visual of the control issues faced by China's central government. The very issues that Fenby does so well to outline in his OpEd piece, and the ones that stand to challenge the CCP's 'One China' ideology.